Roma travel to Cremona aiming to control possession in their 3-4-2-1 through Pellegrini and Soulé feeding Ferguson, while Cremonese in a 3-5-2 press higher, go direct into Vardy and lean on Vandeputte’s crosses and set pieces. Roma show the stronger xG attack (around 1.7 vs 1.1) but allow roughly 1.5 xGA per game, far worse than their actual 0.5 goals conceded, so their defensive record feels flattered by variance and goalkeeping.
Cold, near-zero conditions at the Giovanni Zini favour duels and second balls, an area where Cremonese already post more interceptions and tackles than Roma. The visitors travel with a long absentee list (Dybala, Dovbyk, Angeliño, Bove, plus Bailey doubts), which trims their attacking ceiling.
Add Roma’s negative trend straight after international breaks and the gap between underlying strength and pre-match pricing narrows.